悉尼：中國究竟可以少用多少柴油？我哋而家正喺緊逐步查清呢個問題嘅答案。
該國六月嘅煉油廠生產柴油只有1290萬噸。若唔計疫情期間出現嘅幾次波動，呢個數字係自2010年以嚟嘅最低水平。瀝青亦處於相近水平，回落到自習近平於2012年就任以來嘅最低位附近。
呢個走勢具啟示性。冇邊種石油產品比瀝青同柴油更直接暴露喺建築業嘅需求。前者用嚟封閉新開發地段嘅道路同防水屋頂材料，後者就為混凝土攪拌車、挖掘機、工作卡車同用於新建樓宇嘅起重機車隊提供動力。（相對地，汽油就用嚟推動私家車、摩托車同踏板車。）
中國房地產市場嘅崩潰喺規模同程度上都前所未有。要追溯到2002年，啱啱中國加入世界貿易組織幾個月，先至有年份嘅新增住房開工量低於2026年至今嘅水平。
如果想解釋今年油品進口以呢種非尋常速度下降，就要睇落全國成千上萬個被閒置同棄置嘅建築工地。
施工現場正逐漸收縮。中國三月至六月嘅建築旺季，一向以新增數以百萬平方米計嘅施工面積為特徵，因為會破土動工喺新發展上，以迎合現有項目銷售殆盡後新屋主嘅預期需求。
呢個建築階段往往特別需要柴油，因為挖掘機同攪拌機要處理地基同倒混凝土。不過今年，呢個階段幾乎完全無出現：新增面積只有1.31億平方米，遠低於五年前同一时期嘅水平嘅六分之一左右。
燃料需求的影響
The knock-on effect on fuel demand is inevitable. Consider the contrast between March, when refineries were running flat out processing crude that had already left port before Hormuz closed, and June, the latest month for which we have data.
Output fell by about 2.5 million barrels a day between the two months. Well over a third of that – nearly 900,000 daily barrels – came from cutbacks to diesel. No other product came close.
Compared to its peak during the chaotic collapse of Beijing’s COVID-Zero policy in December 2022, diesel production is now down by roughly a third. Asphalt, falling more than two-thirds since its high point a year earlier, has suffered an even more dramatic slump.
Right now, many builders are working through an inventory of sites accumulated more than half a decade ago, eking out what little cash they can from finishing off apartments with the help of government urban renewal programs.
With diesel prices rising by about 50 per cent during March, it’s understandable if they have paused work on developments that would struggle to make money in the best of times, in the hope that costs might be more manageable once the Strait reopens.
全面解釋
But the behaviour of property developers doesn’t explain everything. Trucks are now switching to battery power at a remarkable pace, as we’ve written.
Still, that’s unlikely to be able to explain a drop-off as sudden as we’ve seen. Uptake of battery vehicles has been far quicker by China’s gasoline-consuming car and scooter drivers, but the process of electrifying an entire fleet is gradual. The drop in gasoline output since March has been remarkably quick, but still not as fast as diesel’s slump.
The depth of the demand decline from the crashing housing market has also likely been softened by the way that China’s refiners have switched from making transport fuel to petrochemicals in recent years.
Output of plastics and naphtha, a feedstock used in making chemicals, was only just shy of its highest levels on record in June. In recent months, China has been producing a larger tonnage of raw plastics than gasoline.
That reversal may have been accentuated by the disruption in Hormuz, but it looks more like the fulfilment of a long-term trend. Nearly a decade ago, Mukesh Ambani, whose Reliance Industries owns the world’s biggest oil refinery at Jamnagar in India, predicted the future of oil lay in petrochemicals rather than fuel. His forecast is now playing out.
Should Hormuz reopen, you’d expect to see some recovery for diesel. Transport, mining, and agriculture still make up the majority of China’s demand, with construction likely accounting for less than a fifth of consumption.
But with sales of electric trucks now making up about a third of the total and the government targeting a 40 per cent sales share by 2030, the broader market is falling far quicker than any hoped-for recovery in the building trade.
If filling your gas tank isn’t even more expensive this summer, you should thank China’s abandoned building sites.
