新加坡：美國紐約與華盛頓於2001年9月11日發生的襲擊，造成近三千人喪生，成為跨國恐怖主義的催化劑。
東南亞因而感受到波及，2002年10月12日印尼峇里島的兩間夜店遭遇恐怖炸彈襲擊，肇事者是與基地組織有聯繫的賈馬阿伊斯蘭耶（JI）恐怖網絡。
在整個2000年代，組織化恐怖網絡的威脅牽動著區域各政府的心弦，但風險已出現顯著的變化。自2000年代中期起，像伊斯蘭國這樣的極端組織善用互聯網與社群媒體散播宣傳，導致脆弱青少年被推入激進的邊緣。
現今的局勢亦受「極右派極端主義」與「沙拉吧式極端主義」的興起所界定，這為各國打擊恐怖主義的行動與監察工作增添了更高的復雜度。
BEWILDERING RANGE OF EXTREMIST ONLINE CONTENT
The threat from Islamic State-linked regional groups persists, especially in Indonesia and the southern Philippines, though at a generally lower level than in the past.
The bewildering and diverse range of extremist content on social media has enabled even further ideological mutation. Disaffected youth worldwide have idiosyncratically combined individual grievances and diverse ideological elements, producing “composite violent extremism”, or “salad bar extremism”.
社交媒體上那種難以理清且五花八門的極端內容，促成意識形態的更進一步變異。全球不滿的年輕人以各自的觀點與多種意識形態元素結合，形成所謂的「綜合性暴力極端主義」，或稱「沙拉吧極端主義」。
在東南亞，年輕人受伊斯蘭極端主義、極右極端主義、反猶主義，以及最近出現的虛無主義暴力觀念影響。虛無主義暴力極端主義似乎正變得日漸重要。暴力之所以發生，往往是出於非意識形態的個人原因，暴力本身經常成為最終目的。
This trend has been particularly apparent regionally in the form of the so-called True Crime Community – an online community of supporters of mass shooters and serial killers.
這一趨勢在區域層面尤其明顯，表現為所謂的「真實犯罪社群」——一個網路上的群體，支持大規模槍擊案與連環殺手。
Such supporters idolise school shooters and have attempted to carry out similar attacks in real life. 例如，在2025年11月，印尼青年嘗試在雅加達的高中文校引發爆炸襲擊。雖然他在假槍上寫滿多條極右極端主義概念與名稱，印尼警方評估該青年受到「真實犯罪社群」的影響。
此外，新加坡亦出現幾宗涉及青年人的「沙拉吧式極端主義」案件。這些案件雖然受到以聖戰主義、極左、極右及厭女等觀點的混合影響，但他們同樣暴露於網上來自虛無主義真實犯罪社群的思想之中。
THREE LESSONS LEARNED
Three key lessons emerge from this survey of the ever-evolving terrorism and extremism terrain since 9/11.
自九一一事件以來，對恐怖主義與極端主義不斷演變的現場進行研究，總結出三個重要教訓。
First, while for the past decade there has been much policy attention on the youth radicalisation issue, it is clear that transnational militant networks remain a challenge in the region.
第一，儘管過去十年政策高度聚焦青少年激進化問題，但跨國武裝網絡在區域內仍然是一大挑戰。
It is generally understood today that a judicious mix of military or police power and softer measures addressing extremist narratives and underlying grievances is needed to deal with the threat.
如今普遍認為，需以軍事或警力與較溫和的措施相結合——針對極端敘事及深層不滿情緒的計劃，以妥善處理這一威脅。
Hence while Indonesian authorities have applied kinetic force against Islamic State-linked networks, they have complemented these with persuasion and negotiations. Through such a mixed strategy, the old JI network formally disbanded in 2024.
因此，雖然印尼當局針對與伊斯蘭國相關的網絡採取硬力手段，同時亦以說服與談判作為輔助手段。透過這種混合策略，舊有的JI網絡於2024年正式解散。
Likewise, in the southern Philippines, militant violence has declined since the longstanding issue of Bangsamoro political autonomy was addressed with the setting-up of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in 2019. Counterterrorism legislation, cross-border intelligence sharing and operational cooperation have also been vital for dealing with the physical terror threat across the region.
Second, in the increasingly complex domain of countering youth radicalisation, simply debunking extremist ideologies alone is insufficient. With the rise of composite, nihilistic violent extremism, broader measures are required to build overall youth resilience to violent ideologies.
第二，在日益複雜的反激進環境中，僅僅揭穿極端主義意識形態並不足夠。隨著綜合性、虛無主義暴力極端主義的崛起，需採取更廣泛的措施以建立年輕人對暴力意識形態的整體抗逆力。
Such broad-ranging resilience includes building digital literacy among youth; embedding them in stable family, peer and community relationships; providing balanced perspectives on hot-button geopolitical issues like the Gaza conflict; and shielding them as far as possible from online extremist propaganda and disinformation – increasingly AI-enhanced – through legislation like the Online Criminal Harms Act.
這種廣泛的抗逆力包括提升年輕人的數位素養；讓他們融入穩定的家庭、同儕與社區關係；就像加沙衝突等熱點地緣政治議題提供平衡觀點；並盡可能透過如《 Online Criminal Harms Act 》等法例，讓他們免於接觸日益以人工智能增強的極端主義宣傳與虛假資訊。
Counterterrorism agencies aside, such a holistic approach must involve other stakeholders, including civil society groups, social media firms, think tanks, religious bodies, educators, counsellors and rehabilitated extremists.
除了反恐機構，這種整體方法亦需其他利益相關方參與，包括公民社會團體、社交媒體公司、智庫、宗教團體、教育工作者、輔導員，以及曾經的極端分子。
Finally, the boundary between counterterrorism and other national security domains such as cybersecurity for instance, may be blurring. A 19-year-old Singaporean youth recently detained under Singapore’s internal security legislation had planned cyberattacks against the websites of local and foreign Muslim organisations he considered deviant.
最後，反恐與其他國家安全領域的界線，例如網路安全，或許正變得更加模糊。最近，一名19歲的新加坡青年在新加坡的內部安全法 under detention，曾計畫對他認為偏離正道的本地與海外穆斯林組織網站發動網絡攻擊。
Twenty-five years after 9/11, Singapore and the region face a rapidly evolving terrorism and extremism threat environment. They will need to apply strategic clarity and a diverse suite of policy tools on a whole-of-society basis.
在9/11事件發生25年後，新加坡與區域正面臨迅速演變的恐怖主義與極端主義威脅環境。他們需要以整個社會為基礎，運用策略上的清晰度與多元的政策工具組合。
Kumar Ramakrishna is Professor of National Security Studies, President’s Chair in National Security Studies and Dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
