'ONE COUNTRY TWO SYSTEMS' INDEX

At the 20th Anniversary of Hong Kong SAR, Path of Democracy released its first report on its attempt to calibrate the current state of ‘One Country Two Systems’ (henceforth 1C2S). The Index serves anyone who is interested in the progress of 1C2S.

 

The 1C2S Index is developed based on a public opinion survey in Hong Kong on 1C2S, and also international indices that compare Hong Kong with other countries and territories in relation to human rights, various freedoms and democracy.

 

To complement our public opinion survey on 1C2S, we also introduced a 1C2S Mass Media Index (MMI) by making use of big-data to measure the sentiment of Hong Kong newspapers towards 1C2S since 1998 as news sentiment has very significant influences on public opinion.

 

It should be stressed that public opinion, international perception, and MMI are determined by perception and may or may not reflect the reality. Even so, changes in perceptions of 1C2S of the HK public, of international think tanks, and of the HK press are nevertheless important. We will analyse the reasons for the changes in these perceptions as they are crucial for the implementation of 1C2S.

Summary (2022 H1)

Index score

The performance of 1C2S implementation stands at:

5.82 (+0.19)

 

1) Public Opinion

The latest reading is 4.71 in August 2022. Compared to last round in January 2022, the index increased by 17.2%. All twelve sub-pillars in public opinion rose. The greatest increases came from ‘Hong Kong people administering Hong Kong’, ‘self-conduct of administrative affairs’ and ‘independent legislature’.

 

2) International Perspective

The score encountered a slight decline from the estimate of 7.25 in January 2021 to 6.93 in August 2022.. Due to time lag in the compilation of international indices, further decline at the international level is anticipated given the perceived deterioration in rule of law, freedom of association and freedom of expression.

 

3) 1C2S Mass Media Index (1C2S MMI)

A quiet beginning in 2022 softened the positive sentiment from the previous peak. It did not take long for the Chief Executive race to boost popularity of the incoming leadership and confidence in 1C2S during the so-called honeymoon period. Despite grave concerns expressed by G7 foreign ministers over this election, the visit of Xi Jinping for the 25th anniversary of HKSAR overwhelmed media discussion, pushing MMI to a new height to 93.5 in 2022 Q2.

 

Methodological Notes

1C2S Index is the average of public opinion and international perception.

The three pillars on public opinion, namely ‘high degree of autonomy’, ‘human rights and freedom’ and ‘Hong Kong-Mainland relationship’ are the evaluation by Hong Kong public on different dimensions of 1C2S.

The three pillars on international perception, namely ‘economic openness’, ‘civil liberty’ and ‘democratic development’, are the evaluation by international think tanks on various aspects of freedom and democracy in Hong Kong.

1C2S MMI measures daily net sentiment of media reports from television and radio stations, daily newspapers and online-only media that were published since 1998.