Path of Democracy is releasing the latest 1C2S index today, and the index rose by 3.4% from 5.63 in January 2022 to 5.82. This reading is resultant of an increase from 4.02 to 4.71 which was given by the public, and a drop from 7.25 to 6.93 given by international thinktanks.
Opposing view of Local and International Confidence in 1C2S
Scores of all twelve sub-pillars in the public opinion, which were derived from a telephone survey, increased in this round of survey. Three sub-pillars with the greatest increase were “Hong Kong people administering Hong Kong” (+24.5%), “self-conduct of administrative affairs” (+24.4%) and “independent legislature” (+23.4%). To contrast, most of sub-pillars in international perception fell. Three indicators with the greatest drop were ‘expression, association and assembly’ (-27.6%), ‘political pluralism’ (-19.9%) and ’constraints on powers (-8.6%). Co-convenor (Research) of Path of Democracy, Ray Poon mentioned that the honeymoon period enjoyed by John Lee’s new government inspired hope and confidence in the implementation of 1C2S in our city. However, the international society deemed three elections and arrests of pro-democratic supporters were examples of the erosion of democracy and civil rights in Hong Kong. Hence, there would be a gap for perception to 1C2S.
Easing Political Polarization and Regaining Dominance of Dual Identity
De-radicalization continued in the latest survey. The gap between the sizes of moderates and non-establishment supporters were steadily widening, as the two diverged from each other with a rise of 9.7 percentage points of the former and a drop of 6.5 percentage points of the latter. Moderates continued to be the greatest group (71.8%), followed by non-establishment supporters (13.1%) and pro-establishment supporters (7.5%).
As for citizens’ identity, the public score for ‘Chinese’ increased by 15.7% to 6.47 with statistical significance, while the score for ‘Hongkongers’ rose slightly by 1.9% to 7.99. The proportion for ‘dual identity’ continued to rise by 15.2 percentage points to 60.7% and it exceeded that of ‘Hongkongers only’ (25.8%). Hence, ‘dual identity’ resurged as citizens dominant identity.
Overwhelming Support for Continuation of 1C2S beyond 2047
In the latest round of survey, there were more supporters for continuing 1C2S beyond 2047 and the proportion was a record high. There was 75.7% of respondents stating that 1C2S should be continued beyond 2047, with an increase by 8.3 percentage points. The ones who disagreed fell by 5 percentage points to 8.9%. Hence, the net value increased by 13.3 percentage point to 66.8%, which was a change with statistical significance.
Easing Negative Perceptions of National Security Law on 1C2S
When being asked for the impacts would be brought to 1C2S by National Security Law, fewer respondents indicated that there would be negative impacts when compared to last round. In latest round, 24.7% of respondents (increased by 3.3 percentage points) believed that there would be positive impact, while 40.0% were for negative impact (fell by 18.4 percentage points). Thus, the net value increased by 21.3 percentage points to -15.3%.
Convenor of Path of Democracy, Ronny Tong Ka-wah said, as there was an apparent gap for perceptions on 1C2S by local and international society, it was necessary for HK government to clarify key issues related to 1C2S in time for the local and international media. It was delighted to observe that more Hong Kong people had a positive attitude to National Security Law, but it was still a long way for resolving misunderstandings from the globe.