News & Events

Press Release

30 August 2021

 

Latest 1C2S Index score recorded at 5.6 stopped falling after continued downtrend

 

(Press Release) Path of Democracy is releasing the latest 1C2S index today (30 August), which is recorded at 5.60, resultant of the 3.62 given by the public and 7.58 given by international thinktanks. In the latest round, both the public and international perception of Hong Kong remain at similar levels as those recorded in January 2021, with both plateauing out since January 2021.

 

Confidence in 1C2S finding support

Public opinion on the twelve dimensions of 1C2S is derived from a telephone poll survey conducted by the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of the Chinese University of Hong Kong from 21 June 2021 to 9 July 2021. The telephone survey deploys a dual-frame design of residential landline and mobile phone numbers, their respective response rate is 30.9% and 31.4%. 1,001 individuals, aged 18 or above were randomly sampled, with a margin of error of ±3.1%.

 

The score remains at 3.62 since January 2021. Five of the twelve dimensions experienced decline since January 2021, with only one of these changes, namely ‘freedom of speech’, reaching statistical significance, while strongest rises come from dimensions related to Hong Kong-Mainland relations, namely ‘resolving differences via dialogue and negotiation’ and ‘full implementation of 1C2S in the future’.

 

Co-convenor (Research) of Path of Democracy, Ray Poon suggested that given how the survey coincides with the perceived shrinkage of civil society space, the drop in ‘freedom of speech’ is anticipated. As with stronger performance displayed by ‘Hong Kong-Mainland relations’ subindices, they point to the optimism instilled by SAR government’s assertive actions to fostering mutual trust with the central government.

 

Sign of Deradicalization

The latest round is witnessing stronger degree of deradicalization as the city returned to peace. The difference between the sizes of moderates and non-establishment supporters are steadily widening, as the two diverge from each other with a rise of 2.4 percentage points of the former and a drop of 4.1 percentage points of the latter. As a result, moderates remain the largest group (56.0%), followed by non-establishment supporters (31.6%) and pro-establishment supporters (12.3%).

 

Support for the continuation of 1C2S

Despite series of political controversies in the first half of 2021 prompted the significant drop in the support for the continuation of 2047, the rate remained high at 67.7%, having dropped 6.4 percentage points.

 

The drop in support rate coincides with reshuffling of the order of the five favourable conditions to the continuation of 1C2S. ‘Maintaining economic prosperity and stability’ rose by 6.3 percentage points to 57.9%, taking over ‘Political system democratizing further’. ‘Maintaining national security’ also rose by 5.4 percentage points to a historic high of 20.5%.

 

Overall, despite falling support for the continuation of 1C2S after 2047, respondents were generally clear about how 1C2S is to sustain. Since its implementation in June 2020, those finding NSL to have exerted positive impact on 1C2S made a record high of 21.4%, almost doubling from 12.3% recorded a year ago. While finding the law to have exerted negative impact on 1C2S remains stable throughout the year but fell from 61.5% to 58.4%.

 

Co-convenor of Path of Democracy (international), Alan Ka-lun Lung said that the HKSAR Government has been promoting the importance of national security through the media and the National Security Education Day. He expects Hong Kong to return to a period of stability and the Government will re-focus on solving governance issues. He hopes that the Government could consider and move towards a broader national security framework and to include public trust, public confidence and public satisfaction with the HKSAR Government as part of the broader national security policy objective.

 

For full Report, please visit: http://pathofdemocracy.hk/1c2s-index/